In recent years, about ten Taiwanese manufacturers have stepped into the thin-film solar cell field. Although the solar energy industry is regarded as one of the few industries that could grow at a double-digit percentile rate, the market is still worried about this quick expansion. Are these companies strong enough to make profit. Will their technologies reach world-class standards. Will the shortage of Si materials block the development of the industry. Wafer-based solar cells have a relatively low technology threshold, so will manufacturers in this industry lose competitive advantages. The solar energy panel, held by Monte Jade Science & Technology Association of Taiwan at the end of 2007, convened to discuss precisely these questions. The following are excerpts from the panel discussion.

Hur-Lon Lin, CEO of Green Energy Technology Inc. (hereafter  'Lin'): We are greatly concerned about the shortage of Si materials. But Green Energy has stood firm on wafer production, with so many strong talents that Mainland China can't compete. People must realize that, in this industry, the flow of talent and know-how is very poor because most talents with know-how tend not to move far. Now we have these talents here, and this will build up our competitive edge. So we could say that Taiwan is doing very well at wafer production. Green Energy is also going to start on thin-film technology development.

Robert Huang, CEO of Lucky Power Technology Company (hereafter 'Huang'): Lucky Power is also going to double monthly production of solar cell modules. But, to tell the truth, solar cell module production is also a hard job. First of all, the module manufacturers must pass stringent factory testing---the anti-aging experiment is really a big challenge. Moreover, if modules are to be sold to Europe or America, the manufacturers have to be certified by the UL, for example; and getting certified currently requires eight to ten months. Secondly, the profits on sales of solar cell modules are really low: gross profits for standardized modules are less than 5 percent. The wider solar energy industry has a "fat upstream, thin downstream" profile, which puts us at a disadvantage. Modules are high-risk end-products, so profits should be higher!

In order to overcome this sticky situation, Lucky Power is now developing niche module products which may generate higher gross profits; some may even exceed 40 percent! Moreover, we will focus on rooftop applications. We are optimistic that in the future, people will choose to install solar-energy generating roofs to meet their energy needs. At present, our four module systems can be set up on the roof. The electricity generated by the systems can be saved for night use, or sold back to the Taiwan Power Company, an organization empowered by the Taiwanese government to take over all power facilities in Taiwan. We have received many small, testing orders. Thin-film technology is, of course, the next step for our company too.

Semi Wang, CEO of NexPower Technology Corp. (hereafter  'Wang'): NexPower's seed investment came from United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC). We are dedicated to thin-film technology. Thin-film is made of glass, so there is nothing to worry about in terms of shortage of Si materials. We started the business in March 2007; the same year, we attended a tradeshow in Milan, Italy, and received tons of orders. A buyer said to me, "I want to order all of your company's productions for the next three years!" Sometimes orders arrive before samples are ready. To respond to this great demand, we emphasize efficiency and speed. As for the trend for thin-film solar cells, I believe that aesthetics is going to become more and more important in this field. A good example is the customer from Saudi Arabia who has asked us to make triangular thin-film cells.

Q: Will demand for solar energy products continue. To my knowledge, most of the demand comes from Japan and Europe, not the USA. Is this true.

Lin: We haven't expanded to a ridiculous extent. But anyway, we believe that the development of this industry is not going to tail off. Clean energy generation and re-cycling are trends that are here to stay. The major problem for now is the shortage of Si materials. I think that the government should do something to help our industry.

Huang: Our orders mainly come from Germany, Spain, and Italy. Only a few come from the USA. Some people say that the demand from Germany is becoming smaller, but I don't agree with that.

Wang: I personally believe that the industry has great potential.

Q: Although thin-film technology seems to be the solution for the shortage of Si materials, it's important to consider costs. For instance, the equipment needed to manufacture 40MW wafers currently cost NTD 400 million, which can be recouped in around one and half years. However, the cost of thin-film equipment may increase threefold, so it may take up to seven or eight years to recoup costs. This is a very risky approach for many companies to take. In addition, it is quite difficult to enhance the yield of thin-film products. We can't overlook these problems. May I ask for your opinions on these issues.

Wang: UMC has transferred investments to more than one hundred companies, so we deeply understand your concern. We have sufficient capital to support us, but we are doing our best to break even as soon as possible. We hope that we can make it within one or two years, so there won't be any crisis of confidence. Looking at the industry in the long run, thin-film solar cells can get around the shortage of Si materials, they can be used as construction materials, and they have higher technology/investment thresholds. So this technology does possess long-term competitive advantages.

Lin: I agree with Mr. Wang. Green Energy will start 30MW thin-film manufacturing in 2008. Taiwan has so many talents in the TFT-LCD field, and we have good infrastructure. I believe that Taiwan stands a good chance of driving forward the development of this new technology.